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We're Here to Help For more information about Oracle's Crystal Ball products, please use the following contact information: Contact Us US Sales: It would be shocking if Peterson lost, but it would make sense in the larger scheme of things.
And an open Democratic-held seat, NH-1, is always competitive and has not been quite as easy of a hold as Democrats might have hoped.
For a list of all Crystal Ball House ratings , please take a look at the chart at the bottom of our ratings page.
Because of the bad map Democrats faced this year, the GOP picking up seats always seemed like a possibility, even a strong possibility.
Our final ratings reaffirm this potential; we have 52 Senate seats at least leaning to the Republicans, and 48 at least leaning to the Democrats.
If that happened, the GOP would net a seat. The potential GOP gain would come from places that make sense: We have them favored in three of the five strongly Republican states that have Democratic senators running for reelection: Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.
Meanwhile the two Republican-held seats where we now favor Democrats, Arizona and Nevada, are much more competitive states at the presidential level and thus are susceptible to Democratic takeovers in a challenging environment for Republicans.
The reasonable range of outcomes in the Senate still seems fairly wide, with a bigger GOP gain possible, or no gain at all or even a Democratic gain.
The Democrats still essentially have no path to the majority without winning one of these three states: North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas, and the Republicans retain what appear to be edges in all three.
An overall upset pick to watch would be the Senate majority itself: Democrats winning everything where they are currently favored, plus Indiana and Missouri, and then one of North Dakota, Tennessee, or Texas.
Joe Donnelly D-IN up a couple of points last week. And then there is the Lone Star State. We have been flooded with messages from credible contacts in Texas, from both sides of the aisle, warning us not to discount the possibility of an upset by Rep.
This all may be reminiscent of the grassroots energy that helped power Trump himself to victory in McGovern lost in a landslide.
On the other hand, Sen. Would anyone be shocked if he lost? Also, Democratic outside groups have put a little bit of money into appointed Sen. If so, it will likely be the actual Election Day vote as opposed to the early vote that would save the Republicans in these races, much like how in Republicans did very well on Election Day across the country.
For all the focus on the House and the Senate, the real story of the night may be in the gubernatorial races, where we see the Democrats poised to make big gains.
Right now, the Republicans hold 33 governorships, the Democrats just 16, and an independent, Bill Walker holds Alaska. Our ratings suggest the Democrats could net 10 governorships, while the GOP could lose nine we favor Republicans to pick up Alaska, which throws off the net change statistic a little bit.
More than half of the Democratic pickups could come in the Midwest. Besides the national environment, there may just be a fatigue with eight years of conservative GOP rule in places like Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, particularly in a time of conservative governance in Washington.
The Republicans have a real shot to pick off Connecticut or Oregon, two blue states agitating for fresh leadership.
The Democrats could very well spring an upset in red states Oklahoma and South Dakota. The gubernatorial races follow traditional political patterns less than the federal races.
And keep an eye on Alaska, which has tightened considerably since Walker left the race, leaving a matchup between former state Sen.
Mike Dunleavy R and former Sen. Mark Begich D that the latter definitely has a chance to win. We know, dear readers, that many of these picks — though hopefully not too many — will be off.
But we pick all the races because we believe you deserve our best guess as to what will happen in each contest. A couple of months ago, we featured a handful of political science forecasting models that attempt to predict the net change in the House, and a couple of them also try to project the Senate.
More details on the models are available here , and their findings are in Table Sabato and Managing Editor Kyle Kondik with the help of many special advisers from both parties who have been with us for years you all know who you are, and we enormously appreciate your help once again.
There are two exceptions: Sabato deferred to Kondik on the pick in KY-6, because Rep. In the meantime, our longstanding overall assessment — Democrats favored in House, Republicans bigger favorites in Senate — remains in place.
But before then, we have the small matter of the midterm to settle. We will announce our final picks on Monday. That said, the direction of this midterm does not seem like it has changed much in the final days of the campaign.
The Democrats remain in the lead for the House majority. The Republicans are even bigger favorites to retain control of the Senate.
And Democrats will net governorships. It replaced the Dylan Ratigan show in , where Ball had been a regular guest on a panel of political pundits.
Ball's book Reversing the Apocalypse: Roosevelt and advocating a more economically interventionist agenda than it has done in recent decades.
Ball is married to Jonathan Dariyanani, and they have three children: From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Krystal Ball Ball in Dems must rekindle the spirit of FDR to reverse the 'apocalypse' of Trumpism".
Retrieved 26 April Archived from the original on October 17, Retrieved August 29, Bloggers who posted my photos are 'sexist and wrong ' ".
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